Nonanticipative Analogue Forecasting of the Air Temperature Extremes

Over the past twenty years, the number of heat waves has been increased steadily, as well as the total number of the air temperature extremes remains on the same level. At the same time, the space and ground-based technologies, high-performance computing, and Internet have started to provide the detailed info on meteorological parameters in real time. These up-to-date technologies created a basis for more accurate algorithms of the heat/cold waves forecasting with lead-times from few hours to several months. In this book, a new nonanticipative analogue approach for the short and long-range forecasting of the air temperature extremes is presented. The main idea is to identify the teleconnections between the current state of meteorological variables at different locations and the future heat/cold wave at specific place using an objective function based on repetitions of the appropriate patterns. The forecast accuracy is up to 36%. The disaster management and reduction is discussed using the EUMETSAT/EUMETcast second and third generation space-based platforms. The target group is professionals engaged in the development and analysis of the systems for early warning of heat/cold waves.